UK economy growing at fastest rate in 80 years, says forecaster EY Item Club’s prediction of recovery to pre-pandemic levels by year-end also comes with health warning A speedy recovery will depend on consumers spending their savings stockpiled during the pandemic, says Martin Beck of EY Item Club. Photograph: Dominic Lipinski/PA A speedy recovery will depend on consumers spending their savings stockpiled during the pandemic, says Martin Beck of EY Item Club. Photograph: Dominic Lipinski/PA Last modified on Mon 26 Jul 2021 00.12 EDT The British economy is growing at its fastest pace in 80 years and could recover its pre-pandemic size by the end of this year, according to a leading economic forecaster. Buoyed by the vaccine rollout and a bounce back in consumer spending, the EY Item Club said it now expected GDP to grow by 7.6% – which would be the fastest annual growth in national income since 1941. The UK economy shrank by 9.8% in 2020, the worst performance in the G7. The optimism comes despite the chaos caused by widespread staff shortages as workers self-isolate en masse after being pinged by NHS test and trace. The “pingdemic” is affecting the running of shops, restaurants, factories and even railway services as bosses struggle to find staff to cover shifts. Although the economy has proved increasingly resilient through lockdowns, the EY Item Club report came with the health warning that the “future pattern of the pandemic and any renewed pandemic-related restrictions will have a significant bearing on whether the forecast is achieved”. The UK economy is more dependent on consumer spending on services, such as recreation and leisure activities, which meant that the lockdowns had a greater economic impact than in other countries, said Martin Beck, the EY Item Club’s senior economic adviser. The reopening of these “face-to-face parts of the economy means the UK should have a correspondingly faster recovery”, he said. In the spring, the group of economists, which is the only non-government forecasting organisation to use the Treasury’s modelling of the economy, pencilled in growth of 6.8%. This is the second time this year it has upgraded its forecast, putting the economy on track to attain its pre-pandemic peak by the end of 2021. That milestone would now be reached some six months sooner than when it last crunched the numbers in April, with the UK’s successful vaccine programme a key factor. Sign up to the daily Business Today email Recent surveys of economic activity have, however, been less encouraging, leading to concerns that the recovery is stalling. The IHS Markit and the Cips survey showed growth at its slowest since March , which was attributed to wide-ranging staff shortages, rising Covid cases and thousands of workers having to isolate owing to the pingdemic. It also highlighted a new mood of caution among the public triggered by the rapidly rising infection rates. The EY Item Club report warned that rising inflation and unemployment could affect growth. The group thinks consumer price inflation could hit 3.5% by the end of 2021, before falling again in 2022, and that unemployment could rise in the second half of the year, peaking at 5.1% before falling back to 4.6% in 2022. “While consumers have accumulated their largest stockpile of savings since the second world war, the big question is whether they will actually start to spend these funds once restrictions on activity are lifted,” said Beck.https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jul/26/uk-economy-growing-at-fastest-rate-in-80-years-says-forecaster
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The train returns to the station at 9:50 p.m. Tickets are are the same prices as for the music shows. Masks are required in accordance with the TSA and FRA regulations. Located in the redwood forests of Northern California’s Mendocino County, the Skunk Train is a heritage railroad that has been operating since 1885. Trains depart from the railroad's headquarters in the coastal town of Fort Bragg, as well as from the frontier town of Willits. The nickname Skunk originated in 1925 when motorcars were introduced. These single unit self-propelled motorcars had gasoline powered engines for power and pot-bellied stoves, burning crude oil to keep the passengers warm. The combination of the fumes created a pungent odor, and the old timers living along the line said these motorcars were like skunks, “You could smell them before you could see them.” The view from the Skunk Train’s restored rail cars remains largely unchanged since the late 1800s. Regardless of the departure point, riders experience a journey back in time, while the California Redwoods provide an awe-inspiring backdrop for this rolling piece of American history. For more information or to book a reservation, visit www.SkunkTrain.com or call (707) 964-6371. As vaccination numbers rise in the U.S., so does interest in travel, but there are a number of missteps travel experts are seeing as more people go on trips. Veuer’s Maria Mercedes Galuppo has more. Catch up on Napa County's top news stories In case you missed it, here is a look at the most-read stories on NapaValleyRegister.com . Get unlimited digital access to the Napa Valley Register for just $1 for your first 3 months! Enjoy every article without restrictions and find tons of subscriber-only perks, such as access to our daily eEdition. Click here for details! Homeowners at Calistoga Ranch resort have filed a lawsuit against Auberge Resorts for failing to provide adequate coverage for losses sustaine… A Napa shopping center on busy Jefferson Street is for sale. The asking price? A cool $3.5 million. City officials say Chick-fil-A has been dropped as a tenant in a proposed Napa shopping click here. center; opponents cheer abrupt move.https://napavalleyregister.com/travel/travel-briefs-new-from-the-skunk-train/article_e7404e27-c5ef-5644-bf50-01acbb7cc670.html